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This meaning is different from the literal/dictionary meaning of the idiom's individual elements.
She said, “Oh, you were barking up the wrong tree asking me to give you your report cards early, but telling you if you have passed is a horse of a different color, I tell you that you all passed and will be going on to the next grade”. Now their teacher was a bundle of nerves, worrying if she had done the right thing and wondering if the principal would find out.
Put mildly, Pakistan isn’t following the optimal trajectory posited by democratic consolidation theory.
Uncertainty and unpredictability remain entrenched and till they do, they will tend to skew political incentives towards short-term parochial gains.
The typical Pakistani version is that what we really need is an honest leader willing to work in the national interest. A prominent strand of comparative politics literature sees individuals as real-change agents and stresses their centrality in charting the destiny of nations.
The rise of countries like Singapore, South Korea, etc. There are also voices more willing to put their faith in individual messiahs as a route to good governance.